# Crapshoot Philosophy



## Lakl (Jul 23, 2011)

So I'm starting this thread based on a comment Carmen made in the "Pet Quality Working Line" thread regarding the often used phrase that "Puppies are a crapshoot", and thought this could evoke an interesting discussion. Are they really?? Or are the breedings themselves a crapshoot based on preferences? Has the "crapshoot", instead of balanced consistency, become the norm because of names, titles, looks, etc?


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## selzer (May 7, 2005)

Lakl said:


> So I'm starting this thread based on a comment Carmen made in the "Pet Quality Working Line" thread regarding the often used phrase that "Puppies are a crapshoot", and thought this could evoke an interesting discussion. Are they really?? Or are the breedings themselves a crapshoot based on preferences? Has the "crapshoot", instead of balanced consistency, become the norm because of names, titles, looks, etc?


I think that the odds that a pup you choose at eight weeks is everything you are desiring with regards to breeding when it reaches maturity is pretty much accurate. 

I mean, you can look at conformation at eight weeks, and by 24 months, the dog might not be the right dog for the bitch you bought him for. The dog can be an excellent specimen in conformation and have bad hips or elbows, or weak temperament. The dog can have excellent temperament, excellent conformation, pass the health checks and produce nothing, or not reproduce himself, or even produce a fault or weakness. 

From a breeding viewpoint, either allow some of your own pups to grow up some and make breeding decisions then, or purchase a dog that has what is most important to you.

From an owner standpoint, I think it makes a lot of sense to go with a breeder who is paying attention to details, and producing good dogs. You will most likely end up with a pup who has an issue here or there. Animals are after all mortal, but you may avoid some of the major issues, it is considered stacking the deck in your favor. 

Any dog is really a gamble. You can buy an adult with all the ducks in a row, and he might drop dead from a heart attack or aneurysm. There is no way to guaranty that a living, breathing creature will be all that you hope for.


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## Lakl (Jul 23, 2011)

Some things, I think, are a given. Health issues I believe can be difficult to predict when genetics and environment come into play. Temperament? In general, I think a breeder should know what they are producing. Not playing into specifics, like saying they know a breeding will produce pups that will excel in Schutzund or SAR. But knowing the litter will produce sound and stable temperaments. For example, a friend went specifically to a breeder with hopes of getting a therapy prospect. Breeder chose the pup. The dog turned out to be completely unstable and had to be carefully managed as a liability. Not only was he not suitable for therapy, he was not suitable as a regular companion, as he would challenge his owner at any opportunity. In this aspect, shouldn't a breeder know what the lines they breed are capable of producing? Is this side of it really a crapshoot? Same deal with fear aggressive/reactive dogs.

The discussion I had regarding my pup with his breeder was spot on regarding nerve, temperament, and drive and exactly as he predicted. He fits into my lifestyle and home like he was made for me. What he will become and do as an adult, I know is left up to me, but I think the basic foundation should be a certainty, shouldn't it?


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## MaggieRoseLee (Aug 17, 2001)

I do believe there is a bit of truth in the 'crapshoot' thing, just because of what's actually involved with genetics from BOTH dogs and having to do the best you can with what you know as far back as you can for BOTH dogs in the breeding. 

That said, I think you can load the dice in your favor in the crapshoot game by finding a breeder who's got a program and goals similar to yours for the breed, and they have the knowledge, experience, and constantly learning from each litter to improve their breeding program. 

So while some fantastic dogs can come from puppy mills and accidental breedings.... I'd much rather have some experience and learning behind a puppy that's going to be part of my life for the next 12+ years. So I do all my research on the front end to find a breeder who's goals I support, and that's where my money goes!


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## onyx'girl (May 18, 2007)

Karlo's breeder had his litter matched perfectly to the owners, and two years later her assessment at 7 weeks held true. Amazing really, the picture the breeder sees for a short window of time that will be the pups future. 

Lakl had the same experience as I did, there were no surprises in the pup I wanted and the pup I received.

Some pups may be 'sleepers' or just a surprise genetically....but as MRL posted, finding a breeder that knows what they are doing reduces the odds of that 'crapshoot' puppy.


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## Lakl (Jul 23, 2011)

onyx'girl said:


> Karlo's breeder had his litter matched perfectly to the owners, and two years later her assessment at 7 weeks held true. Amazing really, the picture the breeder sees for a short window of time that will be the pups future.
> 
> Lakl had the same experience as I did, there were no surprises in the pup I wanted and the pup I received.
> 
> Some pups may be 'sleepers' or just a surprise genetically....but as MRL posted, finding a breeder that knows what they are doing reduces the odds of that 'crapshoot' puppy.


I find this part of breeders' knowledge fascinating, and would love to pick their brains on what they see during the evaluation process or even the process of selecting the sire and dam. After spending the last couple years talking to different breeders and seeing (as much as I can through the net and word of mouth) what they've produced, it has become a lot easier to distinguish those that are truly knowledgeable about the dogs they are breeding.


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## Dainerra (Nov 14, 2003)

I think that the "crapshoot" philosophy means that, no matter how much you plan, you can't completely predict genetics. 

Even if you are breeding two excellent examples of the breed, you can get some things you didn't expect. Sometimes as small a difference as a dog that grows to be 2 inches over-standard. Or something big like the panda shepherd.


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## carmspack (Feb 2, 2011)

those are variables within a range of acceptance.
I took the crap shot to mean a preparedness to be disappointed


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## Whiteshepherds (Aug 21, 2010)

Of course there's no guarantee that a puppy will live it's life never getting sick, but for the most part I don't believe they're a crapshoot if the breeder knows what they're doing.
I think the term is something people working in rescue often say to convince people it's better to get an older dog. (because what you see is what you get, although I don't think that's always true)


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## Lakl (Jul 23, 2011)

carmspack said:


> those are variables within a range of acceptance.
> I took the crap shot to mean a preparedness to be disappointed


It often seems to be used in that context doesn't it? To me personally, so much so, that when you actually get you're hoping for, it feels like you've won the lottery or something. At least that's what I feel like with Kaleb... The relief and joy is so overwhelming sometimes that I want to post about it all the time - how eager he is to learn, his drive, how we went to the vet today and all the strange dogs and people did not excite nor frighten him. They were just a normal part of our surroundings. The fact that we were just going in for puppy shots and a check up, and not hip or health issues. Even the fact that his pasterns stand up straight and tall tickle me. So I begin to start a thread, and then I stop and remind myself that these things are supposed to be NORMAL. But still...I want to shout it from the roof tops sometimes, "HEY!! There's nothing wrong with my pup!!" Lol.


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## doggiedad (Dec 2, 2007)

i don't think there's to much of a chance at a crapshoot
when you're dealing with a reputable breeder.



Dainerra said:


> >>> I think that the "crapshoot" philosophy means that, no matter how much you plan, you can't completely predict genetics. <<<
> 
> 
> 
> Even if you are breeding two excellent examples of the breed, you can get some things you didn't expect. Sometimes as small a difference as a dog that grows to be 2 inches over-standard. Or something big like the panda shepherd.


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## Shaina (Apr 2, 2011)

Dainerra said:


> I think that the "crapshoot" philosophy means that, no matter how much you plan, you can't completely predict genetics.
> 
> Even if you are breeding two excellent examples of the breed, you can get some things you didn't expect. Sometimes as small a difference as a dog that grows to be 2 inches over-standard. Or something big like the panda shepherd.



Not sure if its been brought up, but hips as well. My dog comes from lines of good hips - her hips are not good. That's the "crapshoot" part of buying a puppy, to me.


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## Dainerra (Nov 14, 2003)

doggiedad said:


> i don't think there's to much of a chance at a crapshoot
> when you're dealing with a reputable breeder.


but that is the point - even a reputable breeder can't 100% guarantee what genes might be hiding 4, 5, 6 generations back. Or what might pop up when combined with the background of the other dog. Yes, a reputable breeder will have a better idea but there can still be surprises. 

As Dr. Malcolm said in Jurassic Park, "Life will find a way" It is just impossible for a breeder to know every single gene (dom and recessive) that every dog in the pedigree carries. That would require a full genetic map of every single dog. So, in some sense, all breeding is a crapshoot. A knowledgeable breeder just gives you better odds.


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## robinhuerta (Apr 21, 2007)

If and when I would refer to this type of term.....it simply means to me....*everything living & breathing, faces unforeseen situations of many kinds.*

Since no -one can actually predict how a life will turn out (be it man or beast)....life itself is a "gamble". 
I don't read more into things than what I think they mean...

*Do right...._and the majority of the time_...right will do by you...* JMO


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