# Predictions… what will the GSD be like 100 years from today?



## LifeofRiley

What do you think the future holds for GSDs (health, temperament, popularity, lines, etc.)?


Will there be more lines or fewer lines?

Will the genetic health issues be resolved or will they be worse?

Will there be more balance or less balance within the breed as a whole?

How will breeding decisions be the same - or different - based on advances in understanding of canine genetics at the population and individual level?

How will purchase, or adoption, decision-making information be the same or different?


----------



## carmspack

I predict ALL breeds will run in to problems maintaining this artificial "pure" bred system -- need diversity .
The concept of purebred is about 100 years old as we speak . Van Oirschot lectures STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
http://www.duitseherders.com/peter_part1.doc


----------



## vprasad

I recently watched a documentary called 'pedigree of dogs exposed' and man I was frustrated and sad. You should watch it, its on youtube... If the same thing continues then I guess there won't be 'dogs' anymore .


----------



## Blitzkrieg1

Barring some unforseen worldwide disaster such as war or plague. I predict that bite sports will be banned in most of the EU and potentially some states in the USA and Canada. 
As such, people interested in seriously testing and competing with their dogs will be driven underground. This will lead to a further divide between GSDs capable of work and the rest, making it much harder to obtain quality dogs and share genetics.
There will also be less checks and ballances like hip scores, titles etc.

Germany will no longer produce real GSDs but will persist with SV show dogs who's workability and structure will continue to decline. 
Perhaps Czeck will replace them or Holland as long as they arent afflicted with the PITA types and their ilk. Maybe even the USA..

I predict the Malinois and Dutch Shepherd will fully replace the GSD in all real working venues and bite sports where they arent banned.

In short the GSD will become the next Doberman, a glorified pet with mythical workability that is in reality non existent.

The Sv has already made noises about banning stick hits..its already starting.


----------



## carmspack

breed is an experiment that has run for just over 100 years. A good book to look at is Bred for Perfection [ame]http://www.amazon.ca/Bred-Perfection-Shorthorn-Collies-Arabian/dp/0801873444[/ame]


----------



## huntergreen

i just hope in a hundred years a gsd stops by head stone, even if it is just to pee.


----------



## Vagus

I see the rise in popularity of Czech/DDR/any working line shepherd being a really bad thing. The novelty of having a 'hardcore' dog, who's parents 'were police dogs' (yeah right) will just be too much for many people to pass up. I mean everyone likes the idea of a big mean dog who'll protect its family right? Backyard bitework training will be on the rise, and the unstable/improperly trained dogs will cause problems in public (think - nervy fear aggressive dogs, with inexperienced handlers, taught to bite other people. What could go wrong...) Legitimate training avenues (Schutzhund, French ring, PSA etc.) will be blamed and eventually the ignorant public people will boycott their existence. 

"Why would you teach a family dog to attack!"
"There's no need for such training to be done outside of police work"


GSDs (and Working line dogs especially) already have a bad reputation, and now that everyone and their mother wants a 'dark sable DDR' who will protect their family in these uncertain times, BYBs will have a field day selling exactly what the uninformed want. 

Of course this is entirely speculation, and I seriously hope that I am completely wrong. Good breeders care about who their puppy's live their lives with, but it's the BYBs that I worry about, as well as the impulsive puppy buyers who don't do their homework and want one NOW.

I haven't mentioned SLs because they are so yesterday. Today is the day of WL shepherds - 'real GSDs' as I've seen them called on here by a few. And I'm sure that's exactly what the BYBs will say when they advertise them.

EDIT: Just realised how ambiguous my first line is. The fact that DDR, Czech and other working lines are being maintained is excellent, and I hope this continues. My concern is what happens when in-discriminant breeding practices of these (along with other) lines by crappy breeders leaks out to reach joe public, and all those people who think they know how to train a protection dog with absolutely zero experience. SLs won't cut the mustard because they 'don't have the drive', hence why I think WLs heading towards being in vogue


----------



## Vagus

Just to add, in case my post seems entirely off the mark (which hopefully it is!):

Five years ago, no one could tell you what a Belgian Malinois was - I think this was a good thing. Now everyone wants the dog that took down the world's most infamous terrorist


----------



## Freestep

I have a both positive views and cynical views.

My positive view is that things have to get better, because they've already hit rock bottom. There are "modern" GSDs that Stephanitz is probably rolling in his grave over. The extremes in both show and sport lines do not reflect the "golden middle" that was sought. The dog that was supposed to be best at nothing, but second best at everything, has become so specialized in the different bloodlines that the breed no longer has the versatility that was desired. So, the pendulum must swing back as people begin to realize that the "real" GSD is becoming more and more rare.

I feel the positive because I have actually seen things change for the better in the past 20 years or so, so it makes me hopeful.

On the cynical side, I think that perhaps technology will be developed that can "sniff" better than a dog can, apprehend a criminal better than a dog can, alert/guard better than a dog can, and help disabled folks better than a dog can. Therefore, the need for true working K9s may be greatly diminished. Police and military, SAR, and other service could find new machines to do the work that dogs used to do. Thus, what is the need to breed the utilitarian traits that we so value in this breed?

If that is the case, then GSDs will have to either change, or die out. 100 years in the future, it may be considered "cruel" and "unnecessary" to make dogs do strenuous or life-threatening work for humans. The only "job" a dog may have is to be a companion and member of the family. As such, aggression would probably be discouraged and you'll see a more placid, retriever-like temperament being promoted.

In which case, hopefully, dogs with confidence, strong nerves and high thresholds will be selected for breeding, and not the shy, reactive, fearful GSDs that we see so many of today. I would rather see a strong-nerved, stable, confident, non-aggressive GSD as a "pet" dog, than a soft and sensitive dog that is easily pushed into avoidance as a means of discouraging aggression. Both types could be okay in pet homes, but I want the GSD to at least be the strong and stalwart type, it if comes down to that.


----------



## Baillif

I like to keep it positive. The GSD will be a massive half cyborg half dogbeast made of some sort of stronger than titanium light weight polymer. It will eat Uranium nuggets for fuel and crap depleted uranium the military will want you to collect for use in making anti tank shells for use against the Chinese Empire.


----------



## pjvie

Baillif said:


> I like to keep it positive. The GSD will be a massive half cyborg half dogbeast made of some sort of stronger than titanium light weight polymer. It will eat Uranium nuggets for fuel and crap depleted uranium the military will want you to collect for use in making anti tank shells for use against the Chinese Empire.


Will the puppies still be cute?


----------



## Baillif

They all start out cute...then they get upgraded...


----------



## LifeofRiley

carmspack said:


> breed is an experiment that has run for just over 100 years. A good book to look at is Bred for Perfection http://www.amazon.ca/Bred-Perfection-Shorthorn-Collies-Arabian/dp/0801873444



@ Carmen: Yes, the fact that the the "purebred dog," is such a recent cultural construct is one of the reasons I posted this thread. I, too, wonder if the current paradigm is sustainable long-term. I have read a lot on canine genetics recently and it is interesting.

I think 100 years from now there will still be purposeful breeding programs, but I suspect there may be significant changes in how breeds are defined and how the health of a breed population is managed.

The book looks very interesting, I look forward to reading it.

@ Bailiff - loved your post! Made me laugh. But, actually, your prediction may not be that far off.... 100 years from now it is certainly possible that both people and dogs may be partially "bionic" in order to achieve certain goals. I, for one, have read enough science fiction to believe it is possible (if not desirable)


----------



## LifeofRiley

@ Freestep: Nice post. Very thought provoking too!


----------



## brembo

Baillif said:


> I like to keep it positive. The GSD will be a massive half cyborg half dogbeast made of some sort of stronger than titanium light weight polymer. It will eat Uranium nuggets for fuel and crap depleted uranium the military will want you to collect for use in making anti tank shells for use against the Chinese Empire.


Read _Snow Crash_ by Neal Stephenson. The "rat like things" are very very close to this.


----------



## Vagus

Somehow I completely missed the part that said '100 years from today'  
I was thinking more like 5-10yrs when I made that post. 

I think Freestep makes a good point - technological advances will probably render much of what we do today obsolete. Working dogs would probably be only for those who want them as 'hobbies'


----------



## LifeofRiley

Vagus said:


> Somehow I completely missed the part that said '100 years from today'
> I was thinking more like 5-10yrs when I made that post '


There are no wrong answers on this thread . Even if you were thinking 5-10 years out, that is okay by me. I actually thought I should modify the thread title to be... "What will the GSD be like 10, 25, 50... 100 years from now"

Although, now that Bailiff posted his vision of cyborg dogs, I do think that the "100 years from today" definitely has the potential to be a fun discussion .


----------



## brembo

LifeofRiley said:


> There are no wrong answers on this thread . Even if you were thinking 5-10 years out, that is okay by me. I actually thought I should modify the thread title to be... "What will the GSD be like 10, 25, 50... 100 years from now"
> 
> Although, now that Bailiff posted his vision of cyborg dogs, I do think that the "100 years from today" definitely has the potential to be a fun discussion .


With the new gene sequencing tech out there maybe someone will get a wild hair and figure out some of the genetic issues and build a better dog. Someone has already used the genetic marker for bad hearts in Boxers to nail it down in humans. Germans would be a treasure trove of wacko genes to winkle out.


----------



## Baillif

In 100 years we could probably control em with our freaking minds. Imagine having a device that picked up on your own brain waves and being able to reinforce a behavior with a thought that triggered a device to directly stimulate the dogs pleasure center of the brain.

It was my idea first whoever actually comes out with it owes me royalties you are all witnesses.


----------



## brembo

Baillif said:


> In 100 years we could probably control em with our freaking minds. Imagine having a device that picked up on your own brain waves and being able to reinforce a behavior with a thought that triggered a device to directly stimulate the dogs pleasure center of the brain.
> 
> It was my idea first whoever actually comes out with it owes me royalties you are all witnesses.


Nope sorry. Robert Heinlein already did it in _Starship Troopers_ with his Neo-dogs.


----------



## Baillif

**** him and his foresight!


----------



## selzer

100 years is a ways away. Who knows? If PETA has it their way, we won't own dogs in 100 years. There may be some feral dog packs. I'm kind of glad I will be dead and won't have to see that. At least until the rest of my life, there will be people alive who know how much pleasure there is in owning a great dog.


----------



## Baillif

PETA has been losing too much traction I think. People are starting to see past their crap to who they really are. Humans aren't going to give up tens of thousands of years of dog domestication for a few wack jobs posing naked in magazines.


----------



## Baillif

Worst case scenario PETA gets its own way we lose our dogs our other pets and our right to eat any kind of meat, then some scientists discover vegetables emit tiny high pitched screams whenever we bite into them and PETA stops us from eating them too and next thing you know we are all reduced to eating our own body hair.


----------



## brembo

Baillif said:


> Worst case scenario PETA gets its own way we lose our dogs our other pets and our right to eat any kind of meat, then some scientists discover vegetables emit tiny high pitched screams whenever we bite into them and PETA stops us from eating them too and next thing you know we are all reduced to eating our own body hair.


I'm bald. That's no good.


----------



## Baillif

Pretty sure you have hair elsewhere...just sounds like you're going to have to get creative...


----------



## carmspack

100 years of improvement (so far) 4-Year Old Pekingese Retires After Winning America's Most Prestigious Dog Show - Kids News Article

Pekingese , which originally looked more like the Tibetan spaniel Tibetan Spaniels vom Sunnestaern | News , has excessive hair , runs with a hobbled side to side bounce , and has a pushed in face , so much so that air way obstructions and basic breathing are a concern. 
Tibetan Spaniels vom Sunnestaern | Frühling, Printemps, Spring! 

this is what some breeders are doing to open the genetic base and to maintain "original" features Native Tibetan Spaniels - Information 
Native Tibetan Spaniels - Chotu


----------



## carmspack

sorry , forgot to add this Pedigree Dogs Exposed - The Blog: Pekes - is this really true?


----------



## carmspack

quote "In his article in Koiramme 12/97 (Our Dogs Magazine, published by the Finnish Kennel Club), *Tapio Eerola* tells about breeders, that have received a special permission from the Finnish Kennel Club to cross the Pinscher and the Schnauzer in order to expand the narrow gene pool of Pinschers. Their breeding after the World Wars is based on five (5) foundation dogs.
*Päivi Rantasalo*, the breeding consult of the Finnish Kennel Club, refers in her article (Koiramme 4/98) to the same problem within other breeds as well. The article was titled _“Where to find more vitality into breeding pure bred dogs?” _In Koiramme 9/01 there is an article titled _”Where has the aim to breed purely led us?”_, also written by Päivi Rantasalo. This article is a summary of the Breeding Symposium, which was held in Uppsala, Sweden, and arranged by the Swedish Kennel Club. The lecturers challenged breeders to briskly move to the new millennia, away from the old attitudes of the last century.
The Finnish Kennel Club held a seminary about dogs and their anatomy in 2002. *Kaj Sittnikow*, a vet specialised in small animals, recommended the prohibition of close in-breeding in order to get rid of hereditary diseases due to the incest. An article _“Motion is a medicine for a dog” _(Koiramme 3/02) tells more about the seminary."


----------

